PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that the probability of Gemini 4 being released on Polymarket before September 30 is currently 35%, up 12% in the last 24 hours.

If Google opens the Gemini 4 Flash model to the public before the listed date, the event will settle as “Yes”; otherwise, it will settle as “No”. To settle as “Yes”, Gemini 4 must be officially released and made available to the public, including public testing or an open rolling waitlist; closed testing or private access does not count. Gemini 4 must be explicitly released under that name or recognized as the next generation product of Gemini 3. Gemini 3 Flash, Gemini 2.5, etc., do not qualify. Settlement is primarily based on official information from Google and references credible media reports.