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August 31, 2026 5:49 pm
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The CME FedWatch tool shows a 65.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, while the probability of a pause stands at 34.1%.
CME FedWatch, a rate outlook tool provided by CME Group, calculates the probability of future FOMC rate moves based on market expectations reflected in prices for 30-day federal funds futures. The gauge is therefore meaningful as an indicator of rate expectations currently priced in by financial market participants, rather than as the Federal Reserve’s official outlook.