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Within the regulated cryptocurrency market, trading volume in Russia could reach 4 trillion rubles ($46.4 billion) at the end of the first year of circulation, according to a report by SberCIB Investment Research. According to TASS, trading volume was expected to range from 3.5 trillion to 4 trillion rubles, with the agency estimating the upper bound.
Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov said that this estimate assumes that only a small portion of Russia’s existing cryptocurrency market shifts to the regulated legal segment. According to the Finance Ministry, cryptocurrency turnover in Russia totaled 50 billion rubles ($605 million) per day, or 18 trillion rubles ($218 billion) per year. Around 20% of that activity would be expected to move onto exchanges, SberCIB said.
The bank expected that when the regulated market for organized trading develops, the volume of cryptotrading would rise to between 4.75 and 5.25 trillion rubles by 2028, and will reach 7.5 trillion rubles by 2029 ($87 billion). However, these numbers are still forecasts, so these are not guaranteed trading volumes or targets.
Popov stated that a large proportion of transactions are likely to happen through crypto exchange services outside of organized trading. Adoption of the new rules is expected to be gradual as the new cryptocurrency regime for Russia is scheduled to take effect on 1 September 2026. Existing market participants must apply for licenses by 1 July 2027.
Both qualified and unqualified investors will be allowed to transact in cryptocurrencies through intermediaries. As for retail investors without qualified status, a knowledge test will be administered, and there will be a limit of 300,000 rubles of crypto purchases per year through each intermediary. Qualified investors must pass testing and can also trade cryptocurrencies without having the money limit.
The Bank of Russia described Bitcoin, Ethereum and Tether’s USDT▲$0.9991 as meeting the proposed requirements for trading on public exchanges, such as market capitalization, average daily trading volume, and price history on foreign exchanges. However, the central bank declared it would not allow these digital currencies to be used to purchase goods and services in Russia.
It will include brokers, asset managers, crypto exchanges, and digital depositories. The central bank is also drafting requirements for organized trading and custody. Sberbank plans to create an infrastructure for crypto trading, custody, and digital depositories.
The pace of the first year’s development will depend on licensing and investment, and on how much existing traffic is attracted to licensed exchanges. SberCIB’s conservative projected level of adoption reflects this: the multitrillion-ruble regulated market, as currently envisioned, will form only a small minority of the overall flow of cryptocurrency transactions within Russia.
It establishes roles for crypto exchange operators and digital repositories for ownership rights to digital assets. Investors encounter these through brokers and managers and may also interact with exchanges. Foreign stablecoins are subject to the same rules as cryptocurrencies.
Source: bitcoinfoundation.org