Don't want to trade it yourself?
Our desk runs DEX portfolios on profit share.
Add to Google Preferred Sources
Throughout 2026, repeated warnings that quantum computers could break Bitcoin‘s cryptography failed to move the market in any meaningful way. Jefferies’ January decision to remove Bitcoin from its model portfolio, CoinShares’ February estimates of vulnerable coins, and Google Quantum AI’s bombshell March paper each triggered declines of only around 2% at most. The wide divergence in estimates regarding both the timeline and the scale of potential damage has made the quantum threat difficult to translate into actionable trading decisions. In August, StarkWare executed Bitcoin’s first quantum-resistant transaction, though CEO Eli Ben-Sasson warned that preparedness remains “far from sufficient.” While prices have stayed put, development efforts on the ground are steadily advancing.
Key Elements
In 2026, warnings that quantum computers could break Bitcoin’s cryptography were issued repeatedly. Yet each time, the market barely flinched. On August 26, the day after StarkWare announced the first quantum-resistant transaction on Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency briefly reclaimed the $80,000 level (approximately ¥13 million). Quantum-related headlines did nothing to derail the upward momentum.
So how did Bitcoin actually react on days when the quantum threat made headlines? A review of the year’s record shows the market’s response was strikingly muted.
The Reality of the “Quantum Shocks” Since the Start of the Year
The first ripple came on January 17 from U.S. securities giant Jefferies. Its head of equity strategy removed Bitcoin from the firm’s model portfolio — a 10% allocation — citing advances in quantum technology, rotating the funds into gold and gold mining stocks. The market, however, showed no notable reaction.
On February 6, crypto asset manager CoinShares published an estimate that roughly 1.6 million Bitcoins sitting in legacy-format wallets could be vulnerable to quantum attacks, but that only about 10,000 BTC were held in amounts large enough to be worth attacking. On February 12 of the same month, a revised version of BIP-360 — a proposal to phase out quantum-vulnerable address types — was released.
At the time, Bitcoin was in the midst of a sharp decline from $90,000 (approximately ¥14 million) to the $66,000 range, but quantum concerns were not the primary driver. The selloff was attributed to deteriorating macro conditions and deleveraging.
Even the Biggest Catalyst Only Triggered a 2% Dip
The most sensational moment of 2026 came on March 31. Google’s Quantum AI team published a white paper arguing that breaking Bitcoin’s encryption was “easier than previously thought.” The paper suggested that fewer than 500,000 qubits might suffice — a dramatic revision from the conventional estimate of “millions.”
The paper estimated that approximately 6.8 million BTC had exposed public keys. That figure is 680 times larger than CoinShares’ estimate of 10,000 BTC. On paper, this should have been the year’s biggest bearish catalyst.
Yet on the day, Bitcoin fell just over 2%, from above $68,000 to $66,250. Moreover, the decline coincided with geopolitical risk surrounding Iran, meaning the market’s reaction to Google’s paper was, at best, tepid.
The only episode widely attributed to “quantum-driven selling” was the drop following Google’s announcement of its “Willow” quantum chip in December 2024. Bitcoin fell more than 4%. However, CoinDesk reported at the time that it was unclear whether quantum anxiety was the actual cause. The market had been overheated, and the selloff coincided with liquidation of over-leveraged altcoin positions. In fact, just one week later, on December 16, Bitcoin hit what was then an all-time high.
Why the Market Isn’t Moving: The Numbers Are All Over the Map
The reason the market hasn’t reacted is not complicated. When will it happen? How much damage will it cause? From the outside looking in, neither question lends itself to a sense of urgency.
Predictions for when quantum computers could actually break Bitcoin range from 2029 to the 2040s, and estimates of vulnerable Bitcoin span from 1.6 million to 6.8 million coins — a massive divergence. Following Google’s March paper, Singapore-based investment firm QCP Capital stated that this is a long-term issue and not a catalyst that moves markets today.
The quantum threat has simply not yet crystallized into a form that translates into buy or sell decisions.
That said, the industry is hardly sitting idle. What’s moving is not the price, but the development front. In July, nine firms including Strategy and BlackRock pledged $15 million (approximately ¥2.4 billion) over three years to support quantum-resistance development.
First Quantum-Resistant Transaction — and a Warning from the CEO
On August 26, StarkWare announced the first quantum-resistant transaction on Bitcoin’s mainnet. The transaction used a method called “Quantum Safe Bitcoin (QSB),” proposed by StarkWare’s Avihu Levy in April, marking the first instance of a quantum-resistant transaction executed without altering Bitcoin’s consensus rules.
StarkWare is the company behind Starknet, an Ethereum layer-2 network. It has a team of roughly 220 people and has raised $250 million (approximately ¥40 billion) to date.
However, QSB does not mean Bitcoin itself has gained quantum resistance. The company acknowledged that the success applied to a specific transaction, and that a soft fork would be the more desirable long-term solution.
Co-founder and CEO Eli Ben-Sasson warned in a post on X on August 27 that “preparedness is far from sufficient.” If a quantum computer with adequate capability becomes operational, the current signature scheme used by Bitcoin carries the risk of deriving private keys from public keys. He stressed that this achievement does not mean Bitcoin’s quantum defenses are adequate, and argued that comprehensive measures — including a soft fork — must be pursued to avert catastrophe, adding that “there is still time.”
With no clear signal in price action, the distance between quantum computing and Bitcoin can only be measured through the words of those on the development front. The price may not be moving, but the work of preparation is steadily advancing.
Once added, BigGo Finance appears first in Google Search Top Stories, so you get the broadest, most up-to-the-minute, and most comprehensive global financial news first.
Source: finance.biggo.com