Why is Strategy (MSTR) stock gaining 12% today

Strategy Inc. MSTR (formerly known as Microstrategy) shares rose more than 12% on Thursday as Bitcoin broke above the $80,000 level, lifting investor sentiment toward the company, which is often viewed as a leveraged equity proxy for the cryptocurrency because of its large Bitcoin holdings.

The Nasdaq Composite was up 1.5%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.81%.

Strategy’s rally came despite mixed signals from Wall Street, with Bernstein lowering its price target while Canaccord raised its target.

Bitcoin outlook supports Strategy shares

Bernstein reduced its price target for Strategy to $350 from $450 while maintaining an Outperform rating.

The brokerage attributed the reduction to an updated Bitcoin cycle timeline and faster-than-expected equity dilution from share sales.

Bernstein remains bullish on Bitcoin over the longer term.

The firm expects the cryptocurrency to reach $150,000 by mid-2027 and around $300,000 at the peak of its next cycle in 2029.

Its bull-case scenario sees Bitcoin reaching $500,000 by 2029.

The analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, said rising sovereign debt and higher interest expenses could increase pressure on governments and potentially encourage currency debasement.

They argued that such a backdrop could benefit scarce assets such as Bitcoin.

Bernstein’s outlook also points to broader adoption.

The analysts cited institutional and retail access, spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury purchases as factors supporting the cryptocurrency’s role as a potential hard asset.

Strategy holds about 4% of Bitcoin supply

Strategy currently holds 840,447 Bitcoin, representing roughly 4% of the cryptocurrency’s total supply.

Bernstein said the company’s strengthened balance sheet provides about 3.9 years of cash coverage for annual interest and preferred dividend obligations.

The analysts also said continued Bitcoin strength and a recovery in Strategy’s STRC preferred stock toward $100 could allow the company to resume Bitcoin purchases more aggressively.

The broader market has also shown signs of increased interest in assets linked to the so-called debasement trade.

Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas said the “debasement trade is starting to replace AI mania,” noting that BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, and SPDR’s gold ETF, GLD, had returned to the top 10 most-traded ETFs.

Bernstein said about 59% of Bitcoin’s supply had not moved over the previous 12 months. The cryptocurrency had gained 28% over 10 days following an approximately 50% decline from its October 2025 peak.

Canaccord raises Strategy price target

While Bernstein lowered its target, Canaccord analyst Joseph Vafi raised his price target on Strategy to $175 from $130 and maintained a Buy rating.

Canaccord said the setup for Strategy shares had improved over recent weeks as company-specific and macroeconomic factors converged.

Technical indicators also point to a sharp near-term recovery.

Strategy is trading above its 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages, while remaining below its 200-day average. Its relative strength index stands at 73.26, placing the stock in overbought territory.

The stock remains 2.2% below its 200-day moving average of $141.60, making that level a potential test for the longer-term trend.

The broader trend is still recovering from a death cross recorded in October 2025, while the shares remain down 59.5% over the past 12 months.

Source: cryptonews.net