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An analysis said a recent Bitcoin-led rebound in the cryptocurrency market could be structurally more stable than past bull runs.
Coinpost, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Aug. 26 that Mizuho Securities analyst Dan Dolev (댄 돌레브) assessed that the rebound is being supported not by expanding leverage but by spot buying and inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The key basis is the trend in open interest. Dolev focused on the fact that coin-based open interest fell to its lowest level in a month after the initial rebound and has yet to recover. He viewed the durability of the rebound as being supported not by leveraged long positions but by spot and ETF demand. That suggests real buying demand, rather than short-term speculative money, is driving the market.
Fund flows also support that view. About $1.9 billion flowed into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past week. That was the biggest weekly inflow since October 2025. Inflows continued for five consecutive trading days, led by BlackRock’s IBIT.
Retail investors have not clearly returned. Dolev pointed out that trading volume on cryptocurrency exchanges remains at its weakest level in the past three years. He also said the current solid inflows are closer to a range-bound phase seen late in a bull market. The next variable is whether ETF money pulls retail investors back to exchanges, or whether ETFs keep absorbing demand.
Against that backdrop, Mizuho also pointed to potential beneficiaries by stock. It named Robinhood as the most representative. Robinhood’s share of spot-based retail trading rose to about 40 percent in the second quarter of 2026. That was the highest level in several quarters. Mizuho assessed that Robinhood most clearly shows this inflection point and has among the highest operating leverage in the sector.
eToro was presented as an undervalued rebound candidate. After earnings, the share price fell, pushing its price-to-earnings ratio below 10, and the stock is moving near its 52-week low. By contrast, the number of funded accounts rose 18 percent to 4.28 million. Mizuho viewed its multi-asset service structure, including outside the United States, as a differentiating factor.
BitGo was classified as an indirect beneficiary of institutional inflows. It was cited as an infrastructure and custody firm that could see demand rise as inflows from institutional investors increases of whether retail trading activity recovers
The analysis said the key point to watch in this rebound is the nature of the money rather than the magnitude of price gains. If dependence on leverage is low and ETF and spot demand are leading the rebound, market leadership could shift from short-term exchange trading to ETFs, custody and retail spot trading platforms. Whether ETF inflows continue and restore retail participation, or whether an institution-led structure becomes more entrenched, remains a variable that will determine the market’s direction next quarter.
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Jinju Honghongjj@d-today.co.kr
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