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Bitcoin(CRYPTO: BTC) may have already seen its cycle bottom, but crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says the historical midterm-year playbook leaves room for one more sharp selloff before the end of the year.
Why Cowen Started Buying Bitcoin
Cowen, who began accumulating Bitcoin after it briefly fell below $60,000 in July, said he is using a “dynamic DCA” strategy rather than betting that the bottom is definitively in.
His strategy involves purchasing during the second half of U.S. midterm election years, following the same approach he used in 2018 and 2022.
Historically, he said, Bitcoin tends to weaken during the first half of midterm years, with rallies frequently turning into lower highs before conditions improve later in the year.
That doesn’t mean Bitcoin’s recent low must be the cycle bottom.
Cowen believes gradually entering the market reduces the risk of chasing rallies while preserving capital for another potential decline. His approach involves initially deploying roughly 10%-15% of the capital earmarked for Bitcoin and increasing purchases if prices fall substantially.
“In a year, it probably won’t really matter” whether investors began buying around $60,000 or $70,000, Cowen said in an interview with CoinTelegraph on Aug. 25.
Could BTC Fall Below $60,000 Again?
Despite Bitcoin’s latest rally, Cowen sees another year-end selloff as possible, pointing to 2018 and 2022, when bear market rallies preceded final cycle lows.
While some valuation indicators have yet to reach historical bottom levels, others suggest the low may already be in, supporting gradual accumulation.
Cowen said a 10% to 20% S&P 500 correction could be the catalyst that pushes Bitcoin below $60,000, noting BTC bottoms have historically coincided with the second major equity correction of midterm years.
If stocks avoid another significant pullback, his conviction in another Bitcoin crash would weaken.
Is the Bearish Bitcoin Window Closing?
Cowen stressed that his bearish scenario has an expiration date.
If Bitcoin remains above roughly $60,000 through the remainder of 2026 without another capitulation event, he wouldn’t carry the bearish thesis into 2027.
The historical window for another low, in his view, extends through roughly the next three to four months, potentially stretching into the first weeks of January.
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