Bitcoin Could Hit $500,000 By 2029, MSTR to $350

Bernstein on Wednesday set a $500,000 bull case for Bitcoin(<a href="https://xpertsstudio.com/can-the-taxman-trace-who-sent-the-crypto/” title=”Can the Taxman Trace Who Sent the Crypto?”>CRYPTO: BTC) by 2029, while cutting its Strategy Inc.(NASDAQ:MSTR) price target to $350 on accelerated equity dilution.

Why Bernstein Sees a $500,000 Bitcoin

Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote in a note cited by The Block that the 40-year era of falling interest rates is over, leaving governments facing a choice between fiscal pain and currency debasement. 

With U.S. sovereign debt crossing $40 trillion and debt costs rising fast, Bernstein expects policymakers to favor debasement, pushing investors toward scarce assets like Bitcoin that no government can create or inflate away.

The base case puts Bitcoin at $125,000 by end of 2026, $150,000 by mid-2027, and around $300,000 at the 2029 cycle peak. 

The bull case assumes institutions chase Bitcoin more aggressively as debasement accelerates, pushing it to $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 by 2029. 

The firm’s longer-term forecast of $1 million by end of 2033 remains unchanged.

Why the Debasement Trade Is Already Showing Up

VanEck Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel shared the Bernstein note on X, flagging its core argument: roughly 59% of Bitcoin’s supply has not moved through a 50% drawdown, making it the hardest of hard assets when institutions start chasing debasement protection.

Moreover, Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas noted that the debasement trade is starting to replace AI mania in ETF flows, with BlackRock’sIBIT(NASDAQ:IBIT) and the SPDR Gold ETF(NASDAQ:GLD) returning to the top 10 most-traded ETFs while several semiconductor funds dropped out of the rankings.

Why Bernstein Cut the Strategy Target

Bernstein maintained its Outperform rating on Strategy but trimmed its price target to $350 from $450, implying 176% upside from Tuesday’s close of $126.83. 

The cut reflects two factors: an updated Bitcoin cycle timeline and faster-than-expected equity dilution from share sales.

Meanwhile, Strategy holds 840,447 BTC representing roughly 4% of total supply, with Bernstein estimating the company’s balance sheet covers approximately 3.9 years of interest and preferred dividend obligations. 

The analysts noted that a continued Bitcoin rally and STRC preferred stock recovering toward $100 par value could push Strategy to resume aggressive Bitcoin purchases.

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