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Arthur Hayes Says <a href="https://xpertsstudio.com/will-the-bitcoin-bull-market-make-a-lasting-comeback/” title=”Will the Bitcoin bull market make a lasting comeback?”>Bitcoin Can Hit $250,000 Without A Credit Crisis – But Warns Of 75% Crash
AI took the marginal dollar, leaving Bitcoin behind,” Hayes said, and expected the flow to reverse as liquidity is used to roll over AI debt.
Anushka Basu·Stocktwits
Published Aug 26, 2026 | 7:44 AM EDT
- Hayes predicted Bitcoin will reach $250,000 from continued money printing, rather than through a single catalyst.
- He said he had 10 times more exposure to Bitcoin than gold, and his public equity exposure is focused on gold miners and Exxon Mobil.
- Hayes called the AI buildout the biggest capex bubble in history and said Bitcoin could still drop 75%.
Arthur Hayes sees Bitcoin (BTC) reaching $250,000 without the kind of financial crisis that fueled its biggest historical rallies. But the crypto investor also warned that BTC could plunge 75% along the way.
The Maelstrom CIO expects continued global money printing to push BTC higher, adding that policymakers will keep liquidity flowing rather than allow a 2008-style credit event tied to the ballooning capital spending boom in artificial intelligence.
“We’re not going to get sort of a 2008-sized credit event, but we’re just going to continue print, print and print, and you’re going to look up and see, you know, Bitcoin at $250,000,” Hayes said on Anthony Pompliano’s podcast on Tuesday. “There wasn’t really a financial crisis. What’s going on?”
Hayes Is 10-To-1 Bitcoin Over Gold
It wasn’t an adoption story, but that of liquidity, Hayes said, adding that the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, Japan, China and Europe were all easing in their own way to avoid a coordinated global credit event. Policymakers would print early and often rather than let firms go under, he said, because they didn’t want a public reckoning over their support for the AI buildout.
When asked how his Bitcoin and gold holdings compared, Hayes said the split was 10-to-1 in favor of Bitcoin. His public equity holdings were focused on gold miners, which he said were still trading at a relatively low price and were one of the best ways to play the money-printing thesis. He also said he owned Exxon Mobil (XOM), saying that energy was materially underweighted as a share of global equity benchmarks.
But Bitcoin Could Still Crash 75%
Hayes was explicit about the risk in his own position. “Bitcoin could go down 75%. You never know,” he said, adding that investors should cover every channel money might be pushed into. “There’s no such thing as being 100% long in anything.”
AI Crowded Out Bitcoin
Bitcoin has been underperforming because the marginal dollar has gone to AI, Hayes said. Heavy AI-related debt issuance has crowded out both the Bitcoin and government bond markets. He pointed out that Bitcoin’s all-time high of $125,000 was only twice the previous cycle’s peak, which, he said, was unimpressive by historical standards.
Hayes, who also serves as Malestorm’s chief investment officer (CIO) and is on the way to launching FLOP Labs, expected that flow to reverse as liquidity was deployed to roll over AI debt and questions built around returns on capital in the sector.
Nothing Has Been Fixed
We haven’t had any success in pulling down long-dated yields, Hayes said, pointing out the 30-year yield has moved back to near 4.70% after each attempt. He said 5% was a level policymakers would not accept and that markets should price it in.
Hayes saidTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent was recently chided for calling attention to the fiscal problem without fixing it, and that it might ultimately make it easier for the Treasury to justify further action, he wrote.
Bitcoin’s price was down nearly 0.8% during the past 24 hours, trading around $78,603. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around BTC remained in the ‘extremely bullish’ zone, while chatter around it stayed at ‘extremely high’ levels over the past day.
Read also: BlackRock’s IBIT And GLD Rejoin Top 10 Most-Traded ETFs As ‘Debasement Trade’ Challenges ‘AI Mania’
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Source: stocktwits.com