Wall Street research firm Bernstein released a report predicting that Bitcoin will rise back to $125,000 by the end of 2026 and reach approximately $300,000 at the peak of the 2029 cycle, potentially hitting $500,000 in a bull market scenario. The company maintains a long-term target price of about $1 million for Bitcoin in 2033. Bernstein noted that Bitcoin has risen 28% in the past 10 days, having previously fallen about 50% from its peak in October 2025, and this rebound may signal the end of the current bear market cycle.

Bernstein’s analysis is based on Bitcoin’s roughly four-year halving cycle, dividing the cycle into four stages: breakout, speculation, pullback, and accumulation, and projecting future prices based on historical patterns of price to marginal production cost multiples. In the baseline scenario, this multiple decreases from 1.4 times at the peak of $125,000 in 2025 to 1.25 times at the peak of $300,000 in 2029, and to about 1.2 times when Bitcoin reaches $1 million in 2033.

Bernstein also expects that the recovery of Bitcoin will improve the outlook for Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globally. The company holds 840,447 Bitcoins, accounting for about 4% of the total Bitcoin supply. Bernstein maintains an “outperform” rating on Strategy but has lowered its target price from $450 to $350 due to accelerated equity dilution and the updated outlook for the Bitcoin cycle.