Mizuho Says Crypto May Be Bottoming, Bitcoin ETFs Signal A New Rally

<a href="https://xpertsstudio.com/ethereum-price-hits-overbought-rsi-of-80-as-bitcoin-tops-80k/” title=”Ethereum Price Hits Overbought RSI of 80 as Bitcoin Tops $80K”>Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) latest rebound may be developing on a healthier foundation than previous crypto rallies, with ETF demand replacing leverage as a key

Dolev sees three signs that the crypto market could be approaching a sustained recovery: lower leverage, a potential revival in retail activity and a sharp return of institutional demand through spot ETFs, per Investing.com.

The ETF signal is particularly striking. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $1.9 billion in net inflows last week after recording five consecutive sessions of inflows. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ:IBIT) led the buying. Separate data put the weekly total at $1.92 billion through Aug. 21.

For investors seeking direct Bitcoin exposure through traditional brokerage accounts, the surge puts funds including IBIT, Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (BATS:FBTC), ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (BATS:ARKB) and Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (NYSE:BITB) back in focus.

ETFs vs. Leverage

The bigger story, however, may be what is not happening.

According to Investing.com, Dolev said that coin-denominated open interest fell to a one-month low following the initial rally and has failed to rebuild meaningfully. That suggests the continuation is being driven more by spot and ETF demand than by leveraged long positions.

That distinction matters. A rally powered primarily by leveraged positioning can quickly unwind when traders are forced to close positions. ETF accumulation, by contrast, represents a more direct channel for capital to enter the asset.

Dolev also sees room for retail investors to return. Crypto exchange volumes remain deeply depressed. The question now is whether ETF-led accumulation eventually pulls retail traders back onto exchanges—or whether ETFs increasingly capture that demand themselves.

The Next ETF Trade

That potential retail revival could broaden the opportunity beyond Bitcoin ETFs.

Dolev calls Robinhood Markets Inc (NASDAQ:HOOD) the “cleanest way to express the inflection,” citing its roughly 40% spot retail share in the second quarter of 2026, strong operating leverage and higher activity per funded customer.

For investors looking beyond direct crypto exposure, broader blockchain ETFs such as Amplify Blockchain Technology ETF (NYSE:BLOK) and Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF (NYSE:BITQ) could offer leveraged exposure to a recovery in crypto-related equities.

Meanwhile, Dolev identifies BitGo as an infrastructure and custody beneficiary, arguing that institutional accumulation through ETFs can support demand for crypto infrastructure regardless of whether retail trading returns.

The setup therefore extends beyond Bitcoin’s price. If ETF flows remain strong while leverage stays contained, the current rebound could mark a shift toward spot-driven crypto adoption, with ETFs at the center of the next leg higher.

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