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Bitcoin posted a weekly close above its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time since 2025, entering a pivotal phase for a bear-market rebound.
Cointelegraph reported on Sunday that bitcoin climbed to as high as $79,550 last week, rising as much as 27% over five trading days. Its weekly close on Bitstamp was $77,727. The market is viewing the move not as a simple bounce but as an attempt to regain the bear-market trendline.
Some still say it is difficult to conclude that a resistance break has been fully confirmed. Crypto trader Rekt Capital said around $80,000 remains a key resistance zone, and that sharp pullbacks followed strong surges in each prior bear-market rebound. He said the next few weeks are important, and it could become clear as early as next week whether bitcoin can hold its current high.
Bitcoin traded around $77,500 over the weekend and is up 22% in August. CoinGlass data show it is the strongest August performance since 2017. The rebound also put it back above $68,700, the average purchase price for short-term holders. CryptoQuant tallied net profitability for short-term holders at just over 11%, long-term holder profitability at 18.5% from around break-even, and new-money profitability rising to 12.7% from -1.4%.
The breakeven point for new money is $73,000, higher than the average cost basis for both short- and long-term holders. That means recent buyers could quickly slip into losses if bitcoin turns lower. As a result, the $68,000 to $73,000 range is cited as a key support zone.
The Jackson Hole symposium and U.S. inflation data are cited as key variables this week. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole. CME Group’s FedWatch tool puts the probability of holding the policy rate at the current 3.50 to 3.75 percent at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting at 63.1 percent. The July personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index is due on Wednesday, with market expectations for a 0.1 percent rise from the prior month and a 3.6 percent rise from a year earlier.
An expansion of U.S. Treasury bond buybacks is also being cited as a direct catalyst for the recent rebound. The Treasury said last week it would at least double the size of each buyback purchase to $4 billion. After that, the crypto market saw $3.1 billion in short positions liquidated over two days. Mosaic Asset Co. said such measures stimulated gains in assets sensitive to liquidity expectations, such as gold and bitcoin, and suggested the market is pricing in concerns about currency value erosion if quantitative easing is discussed again.
Exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows are also reinforcing the rebound signal. Farside Investors data show spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.9 billion of net inflows over five trading days last week. That was the largest weekly inflow since October 2025, when bitcoin hit its all-time high (ATH) of $126,200. More than $500 million went into BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) on Thursday alone.
Gracie Lin (린 그레이시), CEO of crypto exchange OKX SG, said net inflows were recorded on every trading day last week, indicating investor interest has returned. She added that it would not be surprising if some profit-taking emerges after bitcoin’s sharp short-term rise. Net outflows exceeded $4.5 billion in June, but August cumulative net inflows stood at $2.38 billion as of late last week, returning to the year’s highest level.
This week’s bitcoin market is likely to move as a combination of a technical resistance break, whether support holds at $68,000 to $73,000, the Fed’s rate signals and whether ETF inflows continue. The market is watching whether bitcoin can turn its recovery of the 50-week EMA into a trend-reversal signal rather than a temporary rebound.
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Yoonseo Leeyslee@d-today.co.kr
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