Coinbase Has Been Choppy All Year: One Analyst Expects Nearly 80% Gains Ahead Anyway

Quick Read

• Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani carries a $330 Street-high target on COIN, implying 77% upside despite three consecutive earnings misses and a 38% one-year decline.

• HOOD is down just 4% YTD and CRCL is up 11%, making COIN’s 18% year-to-date slide the clearest dislocation signal among crypto-adjacent peers.

• Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Coinbase didn’t make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.

Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) currently trades at $186.49, while Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani carries a Street-high price target of $330 on the stock. That implies roughly 77% upside if his call plays out.

Coinbase runs the largest US crypto exchange plus subscription products, stablecoin revenue tied to USDC, the Base blockchain, and a fast-expanding derivatives and prediction markets business. The company is reinventing itself as a “everything exchange” just as core trading fees shrink.

The consensus target sits far below Bernstein’s number, meaning the bull case is real but not unanimous. Investors must decide whether the choppy tape is a setup or a warning.

A Year of Earnings Misses and Shrinking Volume

Three consecutive quarterly disappointments have weighed on the stock. Q2 2026 was the worst, with EPS of -$1.36 against a -$0.2278 estimate, a surprise of -497.01%, and a $359.5 million net loss. Revenue fell 18.51% year over year to $1.22 billion.

Operationally, crypto spot volumes fell 25% quarter over quarter, crypto volatility hit multi-year lows, and Coinbase absorbed $209.5 million in losses on crypto assets held for investment, on top of a $482.4 million hit in Q1. Management disclosed a 14% headcount reduction and $52.4 million in restructuring charges.

The selloff was largely company-specific. Peers exposed to the same crypto cycle held up better, which is why COIN’s roughly 37.89% one-year decline stands out.

Why Bernstein Still Sees a Path to $330

Bernstein’s Chhugani anchors his $330 target on three pillars: structural high-margin revenue growth outside retail trading fees, an ongoing crypto liquidity supercycle tied to spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF flows, and regulatory clarity pushing volume from offshore venues onto compliant US rails.

Operational data supports parts of that thesis. Subscription and services revenue held at $555 million in Q2, or 48% of net revenue. Coinbase’s trading market share hit an all-time high of 10.3%, prediction markets crossed $100M annualized, and adjusted EBITDA stayed positive for the 14th consecutive quarter at $207.8 million. CFO Alesia Haas noted that new products are not cannibalizing spot and that Coinbase One subscribers are increasing their trading activity.

Source: finance.yahoo.com