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Regulated prediction markets for retail brokerage clients is the latest sign that prediction markets are entering the mainstream investing toolkit.
AUG 24, 2026
By Steve Randall
Prediction markets are expanding from their niche corner of the internet and moving rapidly toward the center of the retail investing experience.
A new alliance between crypto exchange Gemini Space Station, Inc. and fintech infrastructure provider Apex Fintech Solutions Inc. is the latest indication of just how fast that shift is happening.
The two companies announced Monday (August 24) that they have signed a letter of intent under which Gemini Titan, a subsidiary of Nasdaq-listed Gemini, would become the exclusive regulated venue for crypto event contracts distributed through Apex’s Futures Commission Merchant to Apex’s brokerage customers.
Under the arrangement, brokerages that plug into Apex’s FCM to offer crypto event contracts would use Gemini for execution and clearing, giving retail investors regulated exposure to prediction markets without their brokerage having to build its own exchange connectivity from scratch.
Event contracts (the regulatory term for what most people call prediction market bets) allow participants to take a position on the outcome of a specific real-world event, from the price of bitcoin at a set date to the result of an economic data release.
They are CFTC-regulated instruments and as InvestmentNews has reported, prediction markets are on track for $1 trillion in volume by 2030, a trajectory that is drawing in traditional financial institutions and infrastructure providers who once ignored the category entirely.
A regulated on-ramp for mainstream brokerages
The Gemini-Apex deal is structured precisely to solve the access problem that has kept most retail brokerages on the sidelines.
Building direct connectivity to a CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange requires regulatory registration, technical infrastructure, and compliance overhead that most brokerage operators are not equipped to handle. Apex, which already provides custody, clearing, and trading infrastructure to hundreds of brokerage clients serving tens of millions of end investors, is offering that plumbing as a turnkey service.
“At Apex, we’ve always believed in meeting the market where it’s going,” said Travis McGhee, global head of digital markets at Apex Fintech Solutions. “This partnership with Gemini is about building the bridge between traditional finance and what’s next. Our brokerage clients get regulated access to crypto event contracts without having to build the plumbing themselves.”
Beyond crypto, the agreement gives Apex the flexibility to collaborate with Gemini on additional contract categories including sports, economics, and broader financial market events, on a non-exclusive basis.
That open-ended scope signals both companies’ conviction that prediction markets will expand well beyond crypto into a product category that could sit alongside equities and options in a standard brokerage account.
Gemini’s regulatory runway
Gemini has been building toward this moment for years. In December 2025, its subsidiary Gemini Titan secured a Designated Contract Market license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the regulatory approval required to list and trade event contracts.
Then in April 2026, Gemini Olympus, another subsidiary, obtained a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) license from the CFTC, bringing derivatives clearing and settlement in-house. As InvestmentNews noted when Gemini secured that key CFTC sign-off, the approvals positioned it to challenge established players like Kalshi and Polymarket in the regulated event contracts space.
“We deliberately chose to build our predictions platform in-house,” said Tyler Winklevoss, CEO of Gemini. “We believe that predictions are the future of markets, and this strategy allows us to expand our offering and open access to valued partners like Apex as demand for event contracts grows.”
The partnership with Apex is the commercial follow-through on that regulatory groundwork. It also extends an existing relationship: in July 2026, Gemini announced the launch of stock trading with zero-percent commissions for certain US customers, with Apex Clearing Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Apex, serving as custodian and clearing broker.
Advisors watching prediction market adoption closely
As InvestmentNews has covered in depth, prediction markets are going mainstream and advisors need a clear answer ready for when clients ask about them.
Goldman Sachs has been using artificial intelligence to analyze signals from platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Prediction market ETFs have debuted, opening brokerage accounts to event-based trading in a format that requires no new regulatory plumbing at all. And Wall Street is warming to the category as institutional investors test new data signals derived from prediction market pricing.
The practical question for advisors is how to talk about these instruments with clients who are already encountering them. Event contracts are regulated CFTC products, not the unregulated offshore platforms that attracted earlier controversy.
That regulatory distinction is central to the Gemini-Apex pitch: the deal is explicitly structured around compliance, with Apex Clearing Corporation registered with both the CFTC and the National Futures Association, operating under their oversight for futures and CFTC-regulated prediction market contracts.
Whether prediction markets belong in a client’s portfolio is a separate conversation. But the infrastructure question of how retail investors access them, and through what regulated venues, is being answered deal by deal. The Gemini-Apex letter of intent is the latest piece of that infrastructure falling into place.
The two companies said they expect to finalize the terms of their strategic collaboration in the coming weeks.
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Source: www.investmentnews.com