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A new working paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland finds that what Americans believe about <a href="https://xpertsstudio.com/bonds-or-bitcoin-we-asked-four-ai-models-which-asset-to-buy-now/” title=”Bonds or Bitcoin? We Asked Four AI Models Which Asset to Buy Now”>bitcoin’s future returns matters far more than their demographics in determining whether they buy it.
The study, titled “Do You Even Crypto, Bro?,” drew on repeated large-scale surveys of U.S. households participating in the Nielsen Homescan Panel from 2018 through 2025, with individual waves collecting 15,000 to 25,000 responses.
Who holds bitcoin and why
Bitcoin holders tend to be young, male, higher-income, and more libertarian or politically independent.
Age was the single strongest demographic predictor — those under 40 were 13 percentage points more likely to own bitcoin than those over 60.
“While Bitcoin is the most commonly held cryptocurrency, most individuals who own crypto own multiple currencies.”
About 20% of holders reported that bitcoin and other digital assets made up at least half of their financial portfolio.
Beliefs matter more than background
The paper’s most striking finding was that expected returns alone explained more variation in ownership than all observable household characteristics combined.
In 2021, bitcoin holders expected a 22% annual return while non-holders expected just 7%.
“This single expectation explains more variation in the decision of whether or not to hold cryptocurrency than all of the observable characteristics of individuals combined.”
Non-holders’ most common reason for avoiding bitcoin was simply a lack of knowledge:
“The first and most prevalent type of response is a lack of knowledge about crypto.”
Bitcoin price swings affect spending
When bitcoin’s price rose, holders with meaningful portfolio exposure became significantly more likely to buy durable goods like cars and appliances.
However, the gains did not translate into higher everyday spending.
The researchers concluded that holders treated bitcoin gains more like lottery winnings than persistent wealth:
“Realized crypto returns result only in immediate, temporary, one-off purchases of big-ticket items rather than a persistent increase in overall spending.”
Information drives new buyers
In a randomized experiment embedded in the 2025 survey, telling people about bitcoin’s 14.3% past-year return raised their desired crypto allocation by about 47% relative to the control group.
Those who received the information were also roughly 23% more likely to actually purchase bitcoin in subsequent waves.
The authors warned this dynamic could feed speculative cycles:
“High rates of return for a new speculative asset lead new investors to expect similarly high rates in the future and help draw in a growing number of new investors seeking similarly high returns.”
Compared to stocks, bonds, and gold, bitcoin stood out for how differently holders and non-holders perceived it — a gap that did not exist for traditional assets.
Overall bitcoin ownership among U.S. households rose from under 2% in 2018 to roughly 12% by 2025, holding steady even through sharp price drawdowns.
Source: bitbo.io