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Bitcoin reclaiming $82,470 would support the view that the current cycle low has already formed, according to a Galaxy Research analysis.
The report said backtests of past Bitcoin bear markets showed a recovery of the 50-day moving average was an early signal but had low reliability. By contrast, the 50-week moving average was a much stronger signal, with only two of 13 historical recoveries followed by another decline. Bitcoin is currently trading around $77,500, up about 32.4% from its June 30 low, the report said. The 50-week moving average stands at $82,470, and a move above that level would support the conclusion that the low for this downturn cycle is already in place. The key, it added, is not simply breaking above that price level but whether Bitcoin can post a weekly close above the 50-week moving average.