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Bitcoin’s latest rally may mark the start of a new cycle rather than a simple rebound, Real Vision crypto market analyst Jamie Coutts said.
Coutts said BTC/USD had broken above its prior downtrend line on the daily chart. Adjusted for what Coutts described as structurally declining volatility, the two-day move was the fifth-strongest since 2018, according to Coutts. Coutts added that major bottoms in 2018 and 2019 were also followed by sharp gains after volatility fell significantly, although the volatility-adjusted strength of those rallies was weaker than the current move. Based on past episodes of abrupt price swings, BTC rose more than 70% of the time after 30, 90 and 180 days, while median returns were also higher than during typical periods, Coutts explained.
Coutts also said the macro backdrop was worth watching. After the U.S. Treasury announced measures to buy long-term government bonds, BTC began pricing in the possibility of expanding liquidity ahead of time, according to Coutts. In the short term, Coutts said a heavy supply zone in the low-$80,000 range could cap further gains. The key point, Coutts said, is that BTC appears to be moving again as an asset that reflects the direction of global liquidity ahead of other markets, underscoring his view that the surge is a signal of a medium- to long-term cycle shift rather than a simple technical rebound.