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Solana Policy Institute CEO Miller Whitehouse-Levine said the Clarity Act has slim chances of passing before November’s midterm elections due to how little time Congress has left in session.
At the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2026, Whitehouse-Levine said the bill had a ten percent chance of passing before the midterm elections, and described the bill as effectively stuck during the August recess after more than a year of negotiation in the Senate, and said that it became increasingly unlikely that the bill would be passed before the end of the current Congress.
Even successful passage of a motion to proceed would be only the first of several votes necessary to advance the framework. Whitehouse-Levine was optimistic but did not expect the bill to become law.
<a href="https://xpertsstudio.com/standard-chartered-makes-new-bitcoin-prediction-on-treasury-news/” title=”Standard Chartered makes new Bitcoin prediction on Treasury news”>Prediction markets are more optimistic than these surveys, with Polymarket assigning a 21% chance that the Clarity Act would pass and go into effect by the end of the year, with over $7 million traded. Kalshi assigns a 23% chance, which is less than half of the probability assigned less than a month earlier.
Whitehouse-Levine said the legislative process has become more complex with the financial services industry more involved, and that this is roughly the sixth attempt at a US crypto market-structure bill.
Meanwhile, even the presidential race has added political complexity for Democrats. Traditional finance has also been joined by other, sometimes competing, interests.
Meanwhile, the banks and large-scale lenders are focused on language around the stablecoin yield provisions and the securities firms and derivatives businesses on language around anything that might affect their business. Whitehouse-Levine says that given the many parties involved, getting something right becomes even harder when lawmakers have less time.
Should the bill fail, it will also not allow for the work that Congress had already put in. As Whitehouse-Levine stated, lawmakers and congressional staff had spent tens of thousands of hours developing the framework over more than a year. However, if the bill fails, then this represents a large opportunity cost.
While confidence in Congress getting the job done may be waning, Whitehouse-Levine believes regulators should take it upon themselves to act and not wait for Congress to finish what they started. A recent example would be the Securities and Exchange Commission’s new proposal, Regulation Crypto Assets, which provides exemptions for certain digital asset registration requirements.
The Solana Policy Institute has called for more regulatory clarity around token fundraising and exemptions for trading securities and derivatives onchain in the United States.
Whitehouse-Levine said that the organization would focus on regulatory action, as relying on Congress is becoming less practical with each day of the legislative calendar that passes.
That narrowing window leaves agencies with enormous responsibility to define what the markets should look like under current US law over the next few months.
Source: bitcoinfoundation.org